Events and trends in the Middle East are now becoming much clearer and the following scenario is certainly possible. Events could happen in many different ways. This is NOT a prediction; it is a reasonable informed speculation based on present information and trends.
I still say that there is at least a 70% chance that the tribulation will begin late this year.
In Syria the insurgents are running the Syrian forces ragged. The Syrian army is rushing to put out one fire and another erupts in another place, they rush there and another erupts in a third place, and so on. As this guerrilla war grinds down the Syrian forces the allies are in no hurry to intervene. They are allowing the Syrian forces to reach the point of exhaustion while they use the media to set the public mood for intervention.
This process could easily go on for several more months.
Israel has a history of taking action behind other major media events. For example they entered Gaza killing several people to trigger the last major Gaza war on the last US presidential election day.
This predilection makes the idea that they would use the July 28-Aug 12 London Olympics to act against Gaza and keep that story on the back pages seem quite reasonable.
Israel has been planning and training for a massive blitz with overwhelming force to destroy the Gaza militants in a matter of a couple of weeks; and then transfer the bulk of its forces to the North for a similar massive blitz against Lebanon and Hezbollah.
Speculating that they would move against the Gaza militants during the London Olympics and be ready to move forces North by mid August; one could almost expect an allied ultimatum or attack on Syria around late August. By that time the public mood would be in favour of intervention and the Syrian forces would be exhausted and an easy target for fresh allied forces moving in in support of the insurgents.
If Syria then kept its promise to take Israel down with the Syrian regime and began launching missiles; Israel could use that as an excuse to blitz Hezbollah and overwhelm them in Lebanon, in a war expected to last two to three weeks.
The allies are also ready to take out the Revolutionary Guards in Iran and allow a National Endowment for Democracy prepared revolution to change the regime in that country.
This scenario calls for Israeli action against Gaza at the end of July, or the beginning of Aug; and for things to progress from there; with the regimes in Syria and Iran changed and Hezbollah and the Gaza militants destroyed in an clear victory, by mid to late September.
Politically in Israel the two main conditions for Kadima joining the coalition are that a universal service law be passed by July 29th and that genuine peace talks begin as soon as possible after this war. The far right are set to abandon the government when the universal conscription law is passed and many far right people in Likud will also leave over the new law or over the following peace talks.
These events set up the possibility of an international peace conference in conjunction with the UN General Assembly meetings in the third week of Sep. With a new pope set up in Rome on or near 16 Sep and calling for a new order in Europe which has already been prepared and is ready to be established.
The White House said on Saturday that Syria’s violence would not end without a political changeover, saying external monitors and a ceasefire would not be sufficient to address the problem.
“Stopping the violence depends on a political transition,” White House aide Ben Rhodes told reporters during the G8 summit at Camp David, where Syria was on the agenda on Friday evening
“We believe change has to include [Syrian President] Bashar Assad leaving power,” Rhodes said, describing the US view.
President Barack Obama told G8 leaders meeting at Camp David that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad must leave power, and pointed to Yemen as a model of how political transition could work there, the White House said on Saturday.
However unlike Yemen, the insurgents in Syria refuse to negotiate as per the Annan ceasefire plan. This appears to bemere political propaganda in an attempt to set the popular public mood for foreign military intervention.
The Group of Eight leaders, in a statement summing up their discussions, urged all parties in Syria to adhere to their commitments under a joint U.N.-Arab League peace plan “including immediately ceasing all violence so as to enable a Syrian-led, inclusive political transition leading to a democratic, plural political system.”
It now looks like it may take a few more months to set the conditions and prepare for a quick blitz to remove the Syrian regime. The public mood needs more work and the Syrian military is slowly being exhausted by rushing to put out one fire and then another and another, in dfferent areas.
Military action against Syria and Iran could begin at any time, but will most likely come in August, after the Olympics, when the Syrian forces have been totally exhausted. At that time the Syrian regime will collapse very quickly from an aerial bombardment and special forces blitz by a strong modern force backing the insurgents.
The attack on Syria will also include a regime changing attack on Iran; where a national Endowment for democracy revolution is waiting to take over, after the Revolutionary Guards are destroyed.
Syria has plainly stated that if they are going down, they will take Israel with them. That means heavy missile barrages from Syria, Hezbollah and Iran.
It seems very likely that Israel will bomb and invade Gaza using the London Olympic games to keep the operation back page news; and once they have nearly completed the Gaza blitz, Israeli forces will be moved north for a Lebanion/Hezbollah operation in conjunction with the allied Syria blitz. That will relieve Israel from fighting a multi front war and allow her to move the Iran Dome rocket defense system north from Gaza to cover the Syria Labanon front..
The Gaza operation is expected to take about two to three weeks; to be followed by an Israeli Lebanon operation of about three to four weeks, in conjunction with an allied intervention to change the Syrian and Iranian regimes.
That will set the conditions for genuine peace talks as early as October.
